Arbitrage: Middle distillates

See where the market is pulling the barrel

trusted by thousands of organisations worldwide
Middle Distillate Arbitrage

Understand the global competition for middle distillate barrels

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Diesel and jet fuel move between major supply and demand centres around the world. Changes in physical prices, forward curves, freight and voyage timing continually reshape which routes work and which markets offer the strongest economics.

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Kpler Middle Distillate Arbitrage brings those components together in one forward view.

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See which origins can commercially supply an importing market, compare competing destinations for available supply, and understand where current pricing is creating the strongest pull on marginal barrels.

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Then put those economics into the context of the physical market with Kpler Flows, Fixtures, Tonnage Supply and wider market intelligence.

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Where should they go?

Use Export + Arbitrage to:

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  • Compare potential destinations for the same supply
  • See how route economics change across forward windows
  • Understand competition between regional markets
  • Identify where current pricing is creating the strongest economic pull

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Don't just look for green cells.

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An open arb doesn't guarantee a destination will win the barrel.

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And if every available route is closed, the product may still need to be sold somewhere.

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Which origins can profitably supply my market?

Where a destination has a brokered physical sales price, Kpler combines the cost of sourcing and delivering the cargo with the physical value available at destination to calculate the outright arbitrage.

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Use Import + Arbitrage to:

  • Compare multiple potential supply origins
  • Identify routes that currently work
  • See open and closed arbs across forward windows
  • Understand which origins can commercially supply your market

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Which origin has the lowest landed value?

Not every destination has a sufficiently liquid brokered delivered market to establish a physical sales price.

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Where a sales price isn't available, an outright arbitrage cannot be calculated. Instead, use Landed Value to compare the all-in cost of delivering product from alternative origins.

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Use Landed Value to:

  • Compare delivered costs across supply origins
  • Account for physical price, freight, voyage timing and other costs
  • Rank potential suppliers on a consistent basis
  • Identify the lowest-cost delivered supply option
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Why does the arb look like this?

Select any cell in the matrix to open the detailed economics behind that route.

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Break the arb down into its individual components:

  • Physical differential
  • Time structure
  • Benchmark translation
  • Freight
  • Other costs

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This lets users identify what is driving the value and what has changed.

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Request demo

What if my numbers are different?

Users don't have to accept Kpler's assumptions.

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Change individual inputs to reflect your own view of:

Physical differentials • Freight • benchmark spreads • costs

and immediately see how the calculated economics change.

Then a large takeaway:

  • Summary View answers “Why?”
  • Scenario Builder answers “What if?”
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Which origin has the lowest landed value?

Why does the arb look like this?

Select any cell in the matrix to open the detailed economics behind that route.

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Break the arb down into its individual components:

  • Physical differential
  • Time structure
  • Benchmark translation
  • Freight
  • Other costs

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This lets users identify what is driving the value and what has changed.

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Point-in-Time

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Markets move quickly. Point-in-Time lets users select a historical date and see the arbitrage as it appeared on that day.

Use it to:

  • Reconstruct historical arb conditions
  • Investigate when route economics changed
  • Review past trading decisions
  • Compare historical economics with subsequent flows and fixtures
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Freight is a key part of any arbitrage calculation, but the freight market is also shaped by the availability of vessels.

See what’s being booked

Track newly reported fixtures alongside the arb to add real-world shipping activity to the forward economics. See vessel, cargo size, charterer, load and discharge ports, and laycan to understand where market participants are booking tonnage and how activity is developing around the routes you’re monitoring.

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Tonnage Supply

Tonnage Supply adds vessel availability directly to the Arbitrage workspace, allowing users to see the shipping environment around the opportunity without leaving their arb workflow.

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Use it to:

  • See historical tonnage availability X days forward
  • Compare vessel availability with the calculated freight rate
  • Understand how the tonnage picture is changing around a route
  • Add shipping-market context when assessing an arb
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Put booking activity in context

See how fixtures are accumulating on an arbitrage route and compare current booking activity with historical patterns.

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Track whether the pace of new fixtures is accelerating or slowing to understand how shipping activity around the opportunity is evolving.

Request demo

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Add expert context to the numbers

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Arbitrage economics don't move in isolation.‍

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The Middle Distillate Arb View brings Kpler analyst perspective to the middle-distillate arbitrage market, putting changing route economics into the context of physical trade and wider market developments.

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Use Arb View to:

  • Understand developments behind changing route economics
  • Put individual opportunities into wider global context
  • Connect physical trade with market fundamentals
  • Identify the themes shaping diesel and jet arbitrage
Middle Distillate Arbitrage

See how economics & flows evolve over time

Overlay historical flows with arbitrage economics to compare changing market incentives with observed cargo movements and identify periods when the two converge or diverge.

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See the wider trade picture

Visualise established flows between major origins and destinations alongside current route economics, helping you put an individual arb into the context of the wider physical market.

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Don't look at the theoretical arb in isolation. See it alongside the physical trade.

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Put booking activity in context

See how fixtures are accumulating on an arbitrage route and compare current booking activity with historical patterns.

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Track whether the pace of new fixtures is accelerating or slowing to understand how shipping activity around the opportunity is evolving.

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Put the arb in the context of the whole market

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Middle Distillate Arbitrage tells you what current forward economics are incentivising.

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Kpler's wider datasets help you understand the physical and fundamental market around those economics.

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CARGO ANALYTICS / FLOWS

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Where are barrels actually moving?

Track global diesel and jet movements and see how physical trade is evolving.

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SUPPLY & DEMAND

How is the regional balance changing?

Put arbitrage economics into the context of expected regional diesel and jet balances and seasonal trends.

A more negative regional balance indicates greater reliance on external supply. It does not represent a forecast of unmet demand.

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INVENTORIES

What's already in storage?

Where refined-product inventory coverage is available, add stock context to understand changing local availability.

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REFINERIES

How is refinery activity affecting supply?

Add refinery runs, outages and product-output context to understand changes in regional availability.

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INSIGHT

What's driving the market?

Add Kpler analyst interpretation of the fundamental, pricing and geopolitical developments shaping middle-distillate markets.

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Access arb data wherever you work

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Bring Kpler Arbitrage data directly into your existing workflows. Access arb calculations and underlying components programmatically through the API, analyse and customise the data in the Excel Add-In, or connect it to AI-powered workflows through MCP. 

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What is Kpler Middle Distillate Arbitrage?

Kpler Middle Distillate Arbitrage is a forward view of diesel and jet fuel arbitrage that brings together physical prices, forward curves, freight and voyage timing. You can see which origins can commercially supply an importing market, compare competing destinations for available supply, and understand where current pricing is pulling marginal barrels.

What can I use Kpler Arbitrage to find out?
  • Export + arbitrage: where a barrel should go, by comparing destinations for the same supply across forward windows.
  • Import + arbitrage: which origins can profitably supply your market, with open and closed arbs shown across forward windows.
  • Landed value: which origin has the lowest landed value.
Does an open arb mean a destination will win the barrel?

No. An open arb doesn't guarantee a destination will win the barrel. If every available route is closed, the product may still need to be sold somewhere. Use Export + Arbitrage to compare destinations and see where current pricing creates the strongest economic pull, rather than looking only for open routes.

What is Landed Value, and when is it used?

Not every destination has a sufficiently liquid brokered delivered market to establish a physical sales price. Where a sales price isn't available, an outright arbitrage cannot be calculated. Landed Value compares the all-in cost of delivering product from alternative origins instead. It accounts for physical price, freight, voyage timing and other costs, and ranks potential suppliers on a consistent basis.

Can I see what drives an arb and test my own assumptions?

Yes. Select any cell in the breakdown matrix to open the detailed economics behind that route, broken into physical differential, time structure, benchmark translation, freight and other costs. The Breakdown answers "Why is this the arb value?" Scenario Builder answers "What if?" You can change physical differentials, freight, benchmark spreads and costs to reflect your own view, and the calculated economics update immediately.

Can I see the arbitrage as it was on a past date?

Yes. “Point-in-time” lets you select a historical date and see the arbitrage as it appeared on that day. Use it to reconstruct historical arb conditions, investigate when route economics changed, review past trading decisions, and compare historical economics with subsequent flows and fixtures. Flows vs Economics also overlays historical flows with arbitrage economics, so you can see when market incentives and observed cargo movements converge or diverge.

How does shipping fit into the arbitrage?

Freight is a key part of any arbitrage calculation, and the freight market is shaped by vessel availability. Three features add shipping context in the same workspace:

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  • Fixtures: newly reported fixtures, including vessel, cargo size, charterer, load and discharge ports, and laycan.
  • Tonnage supply: historical tonnage availability X days forward, compared with the calculated freight rate.
  • Cumulative fixtures: how fixtures are accumulating on a route compared with historical patterns, and whether the pace of new fixtures is accelerating or slowing.
How can I access the arbitrage data in my own workflows?
  • API: access arb calculations and underlying components programmatically.
  • Excel add-in: analyse and customise the data.
  • MCP: connect the data to AI-powered workflows.

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