Can Venezuela hit its ambitious 1.4 Mbd target by year-end?

Despite a remarkable 400 kbd increase in output since Q4 2025, Venezuela’s push to add another 200 kbd to reach its 1.4 Mbd year-end target is likely to face operational bottlenecks that could slow this rapid growth trajectory.

Key takeaways

• Venezuela aims to reach 1.4 Mbd by late 2026, ~200 kbd above current levels and 100 kbd above our year-end target.
• Near-term upside to be capped by logistical hurdles, while long-term growth will be influenced more strongly by global balances and crude prices.
• Venezuela has remained one of the world's fastest-growing oil producer this year, with output rising by ~400 kbd since Q4 2025.
• Oil reforms and new regulations that have reduced the government’s take on crude ventures to a combined 20–35% are incentivizing more investments.
• Output projected to plateau ~2 Mbd by the end of the decade.

Venezuela aims to elevate its crude production to approximately 1.4 Mbd by year-end, representing a 200 kbd increase from current volumes. Although production should continue its upward trajectory through the rest of the year, this goal surpasses our 1.3 Mbd forecast and appears slightly optimistic given the immediate operational bottlenecks.

Nevertheless, recent progress is undeniable. Production climbed to about 1.2 Mbd in June—up from roughly 850 kbd in the final quarter of 2025—establishing Venezuela as the world's fastest-growing oil producer this year. This ramp up has been accompanied by higher imports of diluent, with Venezuelan naphtha imports averaging around 100 kbd more recently (see chart below).

Venezuelan naphtha imports by origin, kbd

Source: Kpler

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