Kpler Refinery Monthly Report for May 2025

Refinery Operations: Global refinery outages peaked in April amid seasonal maintenance surges and are expected to remain elevated in May

• Global refinery offline capacity jumped by 1.6 Mbd in April to 9.0 Mbd (as per IIR), driven by heavy spring maintenance and some unplanned events. Planned turnarounds remained the key driver, though overall downtime stayed around 1.1 Mbd below last year’s levels.
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• Looking ahead, offline capacity is expected to edge lower by 100 kbd in May to 8.8 Mbd, before dropping more sharply by 1.3 Mbd in June to 7.5 Mbd (Kpler Estimate), and further easing to 5.8 Mbd by July (Kpler Estimate), as refiners ramp up runs into the peak summer demand season.
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• North America: Outages Peak in April, Set to Ease in May.
  North American outages climbed to 2.5 Mbd in April as per IIR, reflecting ongoing spring turnarounds at key sites like Valero Jean Gaulin, BP Cherry Point, PBF Martinez, and Flint Hills Rosemount. With seasonal maintenance nearing completion, outages are forecast to fall by at least 1 Mbd in May, clearing the path for stronger crude intake and boosting utilization toward summer peaks.
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• In Latin America, Brazil’s refinery outages (as per IIR) eased as maintenance at RNEST and Isaac Sabba refineries wrapped up, as per IIR Energy data, allowing operations to ramp up. However, maintenance work at other Petrobras sites is expected to keep overall offline capacity elevated through 2025.
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• FSU: Outages Climb on Spring Maintenance, Drone Damage Impact Fades.
  FSU outages rose to 780 kbd in April (IIR), driven by an intense spring turnaround season across Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Outages are set to rise further to 1.0 Mbd in May, as per IIR Energy and Kpler estimates. While earlier drone attacks disrupted several Russian refineries in Q1, almost all damaged plants are now back online—current outages are mainly due to planned maintenance.
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• Europe: Outages Ease but Remain Elevated in May
  European outages dipped (as per IIR) to 1.4 Mbd in April, down from March’s 1.6 Mbd, as refineries like ExxonMobil Port Jerome, OMV Burghausen, BayernOil, and Repsol Petronor completed turnarounds. However, downtime is expected to hold steady through May, with new maintenance balancing the restarts. The fire-hit CDU at Motor Oil Hellas’s Corinth refinery remains offline, with repairs delayed until August. After an extended period of high outages since February, Europe’s downtime should gradually decline from late May onwards.
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• Asia: Outages Surge Further on China-Led Maintenance
  Asian refinery outages continued to climb in April (as per IIR), rising by nearly 920 kbd to reach 3.1 Mbd, driven largely by China, which accounted for 50% of total outages. Alongside China, significant turnarounds were seen in Malaysia, Japan, and India, including at Nippon Mizushima Refinery,  Petronas Kertih, RAPID, ENEOS Chiba, and Reliance Jamnagar. China's downtime alone surged to 1.6 Mbd, the highest since April 2022. Looking ahead, Asia’s outages are expected to climb further to 4.0 Mbd, with refinery maintenance projected to peak at 2.0 Mbd in China by May—the highest level since June 2021, according to IIR.