Natural gas benchmark price outlook

Market & Trading calls

European TTF price outlook: Stable, driven by higher-than-average temperatures and a partial recovery of wind generation during the first half of the week. Bullish demand fundamentals are expected to take over from 24 March onwards as temperatures decline across NW Europe. This will be balanced by a gradual increase in pipeline supply and strong LNG imports.

Asian LNG price outlook: Stable, supported by steady European TTF levels, mild weather forecasts across Northeast Asia, and ample Pacific supply. These bearish fundamentals continue to weigh on upside potential, even as restocking demand from South Korea and incremental buying interest in South and Southeast Asia begin to emerge.

Asian LNG – TTF spread: Stable as both TTF and Asian LNG prices are projected to follow a steady trend. As of 20 March, European TTF maintains a $0.09/MMBtu premium over Asian LNG, with the inter-basin spread narrowing by $0.29/MMBtu last week, reflecting stronger week-on-week gains in TTF prices relative to Asian LNG.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Stable as cooler near-term weather and pipeline maintenance lend upward support to prices. However, as weather warms towards the end of the month and the injection season beings in earnest, Henry Hub is likely to decrease.