Tariffs and macro risks recalibrate crude demand down by 200 kbd for remainder of 2025

Executive Summary

Americas:

• Bullish on Argentina's light-sweet supply, with output in the Vaca Muerta hovering at record highs. Rising output has helped lift exports to multi-month highs, with recent pipeline capacity expansions incentivizing further production growth in the years ahead.
• Bearish on Venezuelan crude exports, which have dropped to a 6-month low in March as PDVSA revoked multiple crude loading authorizations, tightening US heavy crude markets in Latin America and Canada.
• Bullish on WCS Hardisty differentials amid a restart of the Keystone pipeline, with uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan crude flows keeping exports via the TMX pipeline at record highs.

Atlantic Basin:

• Bullish on Norwegian crude supply with Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg output to remain steady
• Bearish on Russian flows as lower OSPs and Indian monsoon season may weigh on exports through Q2
• Neutral on European sour crude imports with weaker economic activity being offset by Buzzard outage over the summer

Middle East and Asia:

• Bearish on Middle Eastern June OSPs amid OPEC+ crude supply in May/June, depressed Singapore product cracks, and the goal to regain market share in Asia
• Bearish on Asian buying of CPC Blend as pricing of light sour Murban becomes more competitive
• Bearish on Iranian crude exports despite nuclear talks happening between US and Iranian envoys on Saturday