Natural gas and LNG news: Gas supply affected amid conflict escalation in the Middle East

Executive summary

European TTF front-month price outlook: Steady

Kpler Insight expects the front-month TTF to remain steady in the following week. After falling briefly after the (incorrect) announcement of an Azeri-Ukrainian gas transit deal, the price picked up as tensions continued mounting in Southern Lebanon. This will continue to support the bulls, with fundamentals, while remaining loose, seem to be tightening, mainly due to lower expected US LNG exports as feedgas flows fell and ongoing maintenance works in Algeria and Norway.

Asian LNG front-month price outlook: Steady

Asian LNG prices declined by $0.13/MMBtu w/w to $13.10/MMBtu on 25 September due to weak fundamentals as supply recovered mainly from Bintulu into the region. LNG prices in Asia are expected to stay stable for the week-ahead, driven by continued geopolitical uncertainty and supply outages from US and Ichthys balancing weak fundamentals in the region.

US Henry Hub front-month price outlook: Steady

Prices are expected to remain steady in the coming week as the last few days of the October contract saw prices rising by $0.29/MMBtu week-over-week. Disruptions to supply from Hurricane Helene and unplanned maintenance on the NGPL pipeline south of the TexOK hub alongside slight increases in LNG feed gas and power demand created conditions to push prices up over the last week. However, once the storm passes and power demand falls off in earnest as Autumn begins, prices are not expected to increase much further as the November contract begins.  

Daily thermal fuel rolling front-month prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: Kpler calculations based on ICE and NYMEX

Price movement definitions

Steady – front-month prices move in a 20 cents/MMBtu upside/downside range

Bearish – front-month prices decrease by more than 20 cents/MMBtu

Bullish – front-month prices increase by more than 20 cents/MMBtu

‍