Ras Laffan loading activity poised to pick up as available ballast tonnage increases

Satellite imagery and AIS data point to a sizeable buildup of ballast Qatari tonnage at and around Ras Laffan, with ~17 vessels potentially available to load. While this signals a likely ramp-up in exports following weeks of reduced terminal activity, the additional volumes will not hit the market immediately — transit uncertainty through the Strait of Hormuz remains a key bottleneck, with two vessels attempting to enter already observed performing U-turns. Once clear of the MEG, most of these cargoes are expected to head to Asia during peak restocking season.

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Market and Trading calls

• Increased loadings at Ras Laffan as more ballast tonnage is expected to enter the MEG while the vessel count at Ras Laffan anchorage builds up
• Bearish pressure on TTF and JKM as the market prices in the potential increase in Qatari supply

Recent satellite imagery indicates an increase in ballast Qatari tonnage inside and outside the MEG, indicating a possible increase in the pace of loadings at the 77 mtpa Ras Laffan terminal. As of 26 June 15:00 GMT, 9 Qatari vessels (0.7 mt of combined loading capacity) are idling at Ras Laffan anchorage – Al Marrouna, Wadi Al Syl, Mekaines, Milaha Qatar, Mesaimeer, Al Sadd, Al Khuwair, Al Areesh and Umm Al Amad. Four of these vessels are Q-Flex/Q-Max, the rest are conventionals. Kpler Insight is also monitoring approximately 8 other ballast Qatari vessels that are currently operating “in the dark” – with their last AIS signal having been received at least 4 days ago, and are thus believed to be at various stages of entering the MEG. This amounts to a total of ~17 ballast Qatari vessels that could be available to load at Ras Laffan. Two vessels – Shandong Redwood and Al Kharaitiyat – are also currently berthed at the terminal and are likely loading.

Ballast vessels idling at Ras Laffan Anchorage

Source: Kpler. Screenshot taken on 26/06/26 15:00 GMT

On average, Ras Laffan loads 2.9 vessels per day during this time of year (using a 2-month average of daily loadings for June and July 2025). For comparison, so far in June, the average loading rate has been 0.5 vessels per day – reflecting the intermittent pace of activities in recent weeks. Indeed, the terminal is currently operating at reduced capacity - Kpler thermal imagery on 22 June confirmed that activity is taking place at only five trains (QatarGas T5 and RasGas T1, 2, 3, 7). This equates to approximately 35% of the terminal’s total nominal capacity. It is also worth noting that thermal activity is not necessarily indicative of actual LNG production levels.

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