Russian waivers reshape crude flows regardless of time limits | The Arb View

Middle Eastern supply disruptions have become clearer, with roughly 8 mbd offline and exports dropping to 6.8 mbd last week versus ~19 mbd pre-conflict, though Russian waivers and reserve releases are cushioning the prompt market. Continued Indian demand for discounted Urals should limit replacement buying of Atlantic Basin barrels, keeping the Brent–Dubai EFS biased softer despite geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, tighter Mediterranean sour balances and stronger European refining demand are supporting CPC and select Atlantic Basin grades, while competitive Midland arbs continue to pull U.S. barrels into Asia.