The 1 million TEU question: Do Gulf overland ports have the capacity?

Our analysis of approximately 35,000 vessel calls reveals that alternative ports with overland connections can absorb, at best, 62% of displaced Persian Gulf cargo. At their current average throughput, they cover just 48%. This structural deficit creates an unavoidable supply chain crisis that demands predictive intelligence rather than reactive tracking.

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Key takeaways at a glance

• 128 container ships are currently trapped inside the Persian Gulf, representing over 470,000 TEU of capacity
• 1.16 million TEU per week was the pre-crisis average capacity calling Gulf ports, total vessel capacity serves as a proxy for gauging the scale of displaced trade
• 489,000 TEU per week is the combined average throughput of all alternative overland-connected ports
• 38% minimum capacity gap exists even if alternative ports operate at their all-time historical peak
• Single-point-of-failure risks are already materialising, as demonstrated by the 96-hour shutdown at Salalah

Current state of maritime access

The Persian Gulf crisis has forced the global maritime industry into an unprecedented logistical bottleneck. As of late March, direct maritime access remains crippled for the majority of the world's largest shipping lines.

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Recent transit attempts

COSCO made a publicised attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz with two 19,000 TEU container vessels—the CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean. After initially aborting and reversing course back into the Persian Gulf on Friday, MarineTraffic data confirms both vessels successfully completed their transit on Monday, March 30th at around 9 AM UTC.

This signals potential diplomatic exemptions or shifting dynamics for specific carriers. However, the only container vessels consistently navigating the Strait are a small number of Iranian-flagged or Iranian-destined ships.

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The critical question

With direct maritime access crippled for the world's largest carriers, the supply chain is asking: Can alternative ports with overland routes absorb the displaced cargo?

We analysed the data to answer this objectively.

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Assessing alternative ports and overland routes

To bypass the current maritime blockade, carriers are pivoting to ports with theoretical overland trucking and rail connections.

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Alternative port network

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Capacity comparison – pre-crisis vs. current

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The data is unambiguous. Even if these alternative ports operated flawlessly at their maximum historical capacity, they would cover only 62% of the displaced Gulf volume.

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Why overland routes cannot close the gap

We observe localised surges at individual ports:

• Khor Fakkan spiked from an 11,000 TEU/week baseline to 78,000 TEU in a single week
• Fujairah is receiving new vessel calls it historically did not handle

However, the broader inland-connected group currently averages 441,000 TEU/week post-crisis—actually below their pre-crisis baseline. These ports simply lack the berth capacity and hinterland logistics to scale to Gulf-hub levels.

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Single-point-of-failure risks are materialising

Relying heavily on alternative hubs introduces severe vulnerability. Over the weekend, a drone strike at the Port of Salalah in Oman damaged a ship-to-shore container crane.

APM Terminals responded by pausing operations:

1. Initial 48-hour operational halt
2. Subsequent 48-hour extension
3. Total disruption is at least 96 hours

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This incident highlights the profound fragility of current workaround routes. When overflow ports face sudden, prolonged operational halts, the theoretical capacity deficit becomes an immediate supply chain crisis.

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